Report: Uganda Among Fastest Growing Economies by 2025

Uganda will top the list on the fastest growing economies in the world by 2025 according to a report released by Harvard University Center for International Development (CID) last week.

 

The Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Predicted Annual Growth Rate to 2025 shows that Uganda's economy will be growing at a 7.73 percent rate followed by India growing at a 7.72 percent.

 

"India and Uganda top the list of the fastest growing economies to 2025, at 7.7 percent annually, but for different reasons. Uganda joins other East African countries—including Kenya and Tanzania—in the top 10 fastest growing countries, though a significant fraction of that growth is due to rapid population growth," the report says.

   

It further states that on a per capita basis, Uganda is the only East African country that remains in the top 10 in the growth projections, “though at 4.5 percent annually its prospects are more modest."

 

Center for International Development researchers attribute India's rapid growth prospects to the fact that the country is particularly well positioned to continue diversifying production into new areas, given the capabilities accumulated to date. "India has made inroads in diversifying its export base to include more complex sectors, such as chemicals, vehicles, and certain electronics," the report says.

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report in May projected that Uganda could achieve a 6.5 percent growth by 2021 but warns that it will be anchored by investment and infrastructure and oil sector dividends.

 

"Infrastructure and oil sector investments could yield growth of 6 to 6.5 percent over the next three to four years. However, weak implementation of public investment and regional developments including conflicts and possible disruptions during upcoming elections could undermine growth, according to the IMF report.

  

The report says “uncertainty persists over when oil production will commence and the phasing of investment in the sector."

 

Harvard researchers predict that economic growth in emerging markets will continue to outpace that of advanced economies. The projections are optimistic about new growth hubs in East Africa and new segments of Southeast Asia, led by Indonesia and Vietnam.

 

"The growth projections are based on measures of each country's economic complexity, which captures the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in its exports and the ease with which it could further diversify by expanding those capabilities," the reports says.

 

It says growth projections highlight that economic growth fails to follow one easy pattern or rule system. The countries that are expected to be the fastest growing - India, Turkey, Indonesia, Uganda, and Bulgaria - are diverse in all political, institutional, geographic and demographic dimensions.  But the common fact among these countries is; "a focus on expanding the capabilities of their workforce that leaves them well positioned to diversify into new products, and products of increasingly greater complexity."